Our Experts

William C. Kirby
Harvard Business School

Daniel Koss
Department of East Asian Languages and Civilizations, Harvard University

Ya-Wen Lei
Department of Sociology, Harvard University

Meg Rithmire
Business, Government & the International Economy (BGIE) Unit, Harvard Business School

Victor Seow
Department of the History of Science, Harvard University

Jaya Y. Wen
Business, Government & International Economy (BGIE) Unit, Harvard Business School

David Yang
Department of Economics, Harvard University

Feng Zhu
Technology and Operations Management Unit, Harvard Business School

More to Think About

“China’s rise reshaped global entrepreneurship and expanded the benefits of innovation,” by Josh Lerner, Junxi Liu, Jacob Moscona, and David Yang (2024)

Why You Should Read It: This study argues that China’s emergence as an innovation hub has globally beneficial consequences by shifting the focus of technology towards applications previously neglected by Western firms. The authors find this creation of “appropriate entrepreneurship” spurred a significant rise in venture investment and business development in other developing nations, particularly in sectors where Chinese business models fit local socioeconomic conditions.

“Rethinking China’s Growth,” by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang (2023)

Why You Should Read It: This paper argues that China’s long-standing growth model, which relies heavily on real estate and infrastructure, is facing sharply diminishing returns and has created severe local government debt vulnerabilities. Using new city-level data, the authors demonstrate that this investment consistently exceeds 30% of GDP and that its contribution to growth is declining, posing formidable challenges to China’s economic transition.

“Party-State Capitalism in China,” by Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee S. Tsai (2021)

Why You Should Read It: The authors propose that China’s economic model has evolved into a unique “party-state capitalism” in which the Communist Party’s political survival and risk management supersede purely developmental goals. This system is defined by the party-state’s expanding institutional control over the economy and its demands for political fealty from firms, fundamentally blurring the lines between the public and private sectors.

“China’s Perilously Imbalanced Economic Success,” by Meg Rithmire (2025)

Why You Should Read It: This article asserts that China’s economy is defined by a perilous imbalance, simultaneously experiencing a virtuous cycle of high-tech manufacturing dominance and a vicious cycle of a crippling real estate crisis and fiscal squeeze. These two trends are directly linked, as the massive state-led resource mobilization for industrial upgrading has strained public finances and starved other sectors of the economy.

“Policy Experimentation in China: The Political Economy of Policy Learning,” by Shaoda Wang and David Y. Yang (2025)

Why You Should Read It: This paper analyzes China’s extensive policy experimentation system and finds its effectiveness for genuine policy learning is limited by systemic political biases. The study documents that experimentation sites are positively selected, local politicians exert excessive and non-replicable efforts to ensure success, and the central government is not fully sophisticated in interpreting these distorted outcomes.

“Rebalancing China’s Economy: Stimulus, Confidence, and Self-Sufficiency,” by Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Maurice R. Greenberg, Council on Foreign Relations (2025)

Why You Should Read It: The article argues that while U.S. tariffs pose a threat, the real challenge for China’s policymakers lies at home. If Beijing can leverage rising tariffs to push domestic reform and increase household consumption, it can sustain balanced growth despite short-term pains. Even so, Beijing’s consumption-promotion measures will not sacrifice investment in strategic sectors. Chinese President Xi remains convinced that achieving self-reliance and technological advancement can heal economic woes, shake off the “Century of Humiliation,” and enshrine him as a paramount leader.

“A Perfect Storm: Fiscal Discipline, COVID, and Local Government Debt in China,” by Jean C. Oi, Jason M. Wu, and Yunxiao Xu, The China Journal (2025)

Why You Should Read It: After the abrupt end of China’s zero-COVID policy at the end of 2022, the debt held by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) on behalf of their local governments had soared to at least US$8 trillion. Many local governments, struggling to cover wages, are now cutting public services due to a lack of funds. The authors demonstrate how China’s policies during COVID exposed the inherent vulnerability of local governments relying on the real estate sector to fill their annual fiscal gaps, highlighting the need for systemic fiscal reform.